{"id":84661,"date":"2024-02-09T15:25:18","date_gmt":"2024-02-09T08:25:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/?p=84661"},"modified":"2024-02-09T20:26:51","modified_gmt":"2024-02-09T13:26:51","slug":"tujuh-hari-sebelum-pencoblosan-satu-putaran-semakin-terbuka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/tujuh-hari-sebelum-pencoblosan-satu-putaran-semakin-terbuka\/","title":{"rendered":"Tujuh Hari Sebelum Pencoblosan, Satu Putaran Semakin Terbuka?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Ditulis oleh: Denny JA Ph.D (Pendiri Lingkaran Survei Indonesia\/LSI)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Semakin terbuka Pemilu Presiden 2024 berakhir satu putaran saja untuk Prabowo-Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, karena pasangan ini sudah menembus dukungan 53.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Pertanyaannya, di sisa waktu tujuh hari lagi menuju pemilihan, akan adakah peristiwa besar yang akan mengurangi laju elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran, dan membatalkan menang satu putaran saja?<\/p>\n<p>Jika dibandingkan dengan survei di bulan September 2023, sebelum ribut-ribut kasus MK, dukungan terhadap Prabowo-Gibran justru melompat tambah besar, di tujuh area seperti: pemilih muda, wong cilik, pemilih minoritas, pemilih terdidik, pemilih di Jawa Tengah, pemilih yang puas kinerja Presiden Jokowi, hingga meningkatnya pengenalan\/kesukaan terhadap Prabowo dan Gibran.<\/p>\n<p>Karena masih ada pemilih yang belum menentukan pilihan, pemilih yang belum militan dan \ud835\ude2e\ud835\ude22\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude28\ud835\ude2a\ud835\ude2f \ud835\ude30\ud835\ude27 \ud835\ude26\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude33 (MoE) karena sampel, LSI Denny JA membuat prediksi dalam bentuk interval.<\/p>\n<p>Prabowo-Gibran berada di interval 47.9% hingga 58.3%; Anies-Muhaimin berada di interval 18.9% hingga 26.5%; Ganjar-Mahfud berada di interval 16.8% hingga 24.0%.<\/p>\n<p>Dengan prediksi interval tersebut, maka 30% kemungkinan Prabowo-Gibran menang tapi ada putaran kedua, dan 70% kemungkinan Prabowo-Gibran menang satu putaran saja.<\/p>\n<p>Demikian temuan dari hasil riset terbaru LSI Denny JA tujuh hari menjelang pencoblosan.<\/p>\n<p>LSI Denny JA melakukan survei tatap muka (face-to-face interview) dengan menggunakan kuesioner kepada 1.200 responden di seluruh Indonesia. Dengan 1200 responden, \ud835\ude2e\ud835\ude22\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude28\ud835\ude2a\ud835\ude2f \ud835\ude30\ud835\ude27 \ud835\ude26\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude33 survei ini sebesar 2.9%. Survei dilakukan pada tanggal 26 Januari \u2013 6 Februari 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Selain survei dengan metode kuantitatif, LSI Denny JA juga memperkaya informasi dan analisa dengan metode kualitatif, seperti analisis media, in-depth interview, <em>expert judgement<\/em> dan<em> focus group discussion<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udc01\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udfcf : \ud835\udc04\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc24\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udfd1 \ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20 \ud835\udc02\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc29\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2c<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfed\ud835\uddd4. \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc-\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddef\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee<\/p>\n<p>Hasil survei simulasi kertas suara Pilpres Februari 2024, Prabowo\u2013Gibran berada di posisi teratas dengan elektabilitas sebesar 53.5%. Posisi kedua Anies-Muhaimin dengan elektabilitas 21.7%. Posisi ketiga Ganjar-Mahfud dengan elektabilitas sebesar 19.2%. Sebesar 5.5% menyatakan belum memutuskan\/rahasia\/tidak tahu\/tidak jawab. Adapun suara tidak sah sebesar 0.1%.<\/p>\n<p>Dilihat secara tren, satu putaran semakin terbuka lebar. Pada survei awal Januari 2024, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 46.6%. Survei Akhir Januari 2024 terjadi kenaikan menjadi 50.7%. Saat ini di awal Februari elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran terus naik menjadi 53.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Dalam satu bulan (Januari ke Februari 2024) terjadi kenaikan 6.9% untuk Prabowo-Gibran. Dalam satu minggu (akhir Januari ke awal Februari 2024) terjadi kenaikan 2.8%. Jika tren ini bisa terus dipertahankan maka satu putaran kian terbuka lebar.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfed\ud835\uddd5. \ud835\udde6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\udde6\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\udde6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf3\ud835\ude01 \ud835\udde6\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude00<\/p>\n<p>Dari pemilih Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 53.5%, ada 47.9% yang merupakan \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude63\ud835\ude5c \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude6a\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude5a\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude68 (pemilih kuat\/militan), dan 5.6% merupakan \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude5b\ud835\ude69 \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude6a\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude5a\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude68 (pemilih yang masih mungkin berubah).<\/p>\n<p>Dari pemilih Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 21.7%, sebesar 18.9% merupakan \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude63\ud835\ude5c \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude6a\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude5a\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude68, dan 2.8% merupakan \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude5b\ud835\ude69 \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude6a\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude5a\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude68. Dari pemilih Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 19.2% sebesar 16.8% merupakan \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude63\ud835\ude5c \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude6a\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude5a\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude68, dan 2.4% merupakan \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude5b\ud835\ude69 \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude6a\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude5a\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude68.<\/p>\n<p>Pemilih yang masih mungkin berubah untuk Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 5.6%, Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 2.8%, Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 2.4%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfed\ud835\uddd6. \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\udddf\ud835\udde6\ud835\udddc \ud835\uddd7\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude06 \ud835\udddd\ud835\uddd4 \ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8 \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \ud835\udfee\ud835\udfec\ud835\udfee\ud835\udff0<\/p>\n<p>Karena masih ada pemilih yang belum menentukan pilihan, pemilih yang belum militan dan \ud835\ude2e\ud835\ude22\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude28\ud835\ude2a\ud835\ude2f \ud835\ude30\ud835\ude27 \ud835\ude26\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude33 (MoE) karena sampel, LSI Denny JA membuat prediksi dalam bentuk interval.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\uddd5\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddef\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf5 merupakan pemilih militan masing-masing pasangan calon. \ud835\uddd5\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00 merupakan gabungan hasil survei ditambah Yang Belum Memilih dibagi rata ke tiga pasang, plus \ud835\ude2e\ud835\ude22\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude28\ud835\ude2a\ud835\ude2f \ud835\ude30\ud835\ude27 \ud835\ude26\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude33 sebesar 2.9%.<\/p>\n<p>Hasilnya adalah, Prabowo-Gibran berada di interval 47.9% hingga 58.3%. Anies-Muhaimin berada di interval 18.9% hingga 26.5%. Ganjar-Mahfud berada di interval 16.8% hingga 24.0%<\/p>\n<p>Dengan prediksi interval itu maka 30% kemungkinan Prabowo-Gibran menang tapi ada putaran kedua, dan 70% kemungkinan Prabowo-Gibran menang satu putaran saja.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udc01\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udfd0 : \ud835\udc03\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc22 \ud835\udc03\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc24\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc01\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc22 \ud835\udc12\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc21<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\uddd4. \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6 (\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb), \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc-\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf4\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6, \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8.<\/p>\n<p>Pada segmen pendapatan di bawah Rp 2 juta\/bulan elektabilitas Prabowo\u2013Gibran sebesar 54.7%; Elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 23.0%; dan Elektabilitas Anies\u2013Muhaimin sebesar 16.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Pada segmen pendapatan Rp 2-4 juta\/bulan elektabilitas Prabowo\u2013Gibran sebesar 55.8%; Elektabilitas Anies\u2013Muhaimin sebesar 22.5%; dan Elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 15.7%.<\/p>\n<p>Pada segmen pendapatan di atas Rp 4 juta\/bulan elektabilitas Prabowo\u2013Gibran tertinggi dengan perolehan sebesar 43.4%. Elektabilitas Anies\u2013Muhaimin di urutan kedua dengan 35.4%. Elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 16.8%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\uddd5. \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb, \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc\u2013\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf4\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb, \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00.<\/p>\n<p>Segmen pendidikan tamat SD ke bawah elektabilitas Prabowo\u2013Gibran sebesar 56.2%; Elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 22.9%; dan Elektabilitas Anies\u2013Muhaimin sebesar 15.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Segmen pendidikan tamat SMP sederajat elektabilitas Prabowo\u2013Gibran sebesar 56.5%; Elektabilitas Anies\u2013Muhaimin sebesar 21.2%; dan Elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 18.0%.<\/p>\n<p>Segmen pendidikan tamat SMA sederajat elektabilitas Prabowo\u2013Gibran sebesar 52.6%; Elektabilitas Anies\u2013Muhaimin sebesar 25.9%; dan Elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 16.8%.<\/p>\n<p>Segmen pendidikan tamat diploma (D3) ke atas atau pendidikan tinggi, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 37.8%; Elektabilitas Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 33.0%; dan Elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 14.8%<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\uddd6. \ud835\uddd7\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff, \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc\u2013\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf4\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf6-\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb.<\/p>\n<p>Elektabilitas Prabowo\u2013Gibran di segmen laki-laki sebesar 54.1% dan di segmen perempuan sebesar 52.9%. Elektabilitas Anies-Muhaimin di segmen laki-laki sebesar 22.2% dan di segmen perempuan sebesar 21.2%. Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud di segmen laki-laki sebesar 17.3% dan di segmen perempuan sebesar 21%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\uddd7. \ud835\uddd7\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8 \ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee, \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc\u2013\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf4\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8 \ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee \ud835\udddc\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\udde1\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb \ud835\udddcs\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa<\/p>\n<p>Dari kalangan pemilih Islam, Prabowo-Gibran mendapat dukungan sebesar 53.3%, Anies Muhaimin sebesar 23.5%, Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 17.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Dari kalangan non-Islam atau kelompok agama minoritas, Prabowo-Gibran mendapat dukungan sebesar 55.3%, Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 37.7%, Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 2.4%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\uddd8. \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude02\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee, \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc\u2013\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf4\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude02\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude02\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddfa\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee (\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee \ud835\udfef\ud835\udfec \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf5\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\uddef\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf5).<\/p>\n<p>Pada segmen usia 30 tahun ke bawah elektabilitas Prabowo\u2013Gibran sebesar 65%, elektabilitas Anies\u2013Muhaimin sebesar 16.8% dan elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 12.6%.<\/p>\n<p>Segmen usia 30-39 tahun elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 58.4%, elektabilitas Anies\u2013Muhaimin sebesar 19.0% dan elektabilitas Ganjar\u2013Mahfud sebesar 14.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Segmen usia 40-49 tahun elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 52.0%. Elektabilitas Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 25.9%. Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 17.7%.<\/p>\n<p>Segmen usia senja (di atas 50 tahun), elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 46.9%. Elektabilitas Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 22.2%. Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 25.7%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\uddd9. \ud835\uddd7\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8, \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude06\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc-\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\udff4\ud835\udff5.\ud835\udfed%<\/p>\n<p>Prabowo\u2013Gibran unggul di lima pemilih partai yaitu Gerindra (dukungan pemilih Gerindra sebesar 89.1%), Golkar (74.6%), Demokrat (53%), PAN (7.6%), dan partai dari kubu lain: PPP (64.8%).<\/p>\n<p>Anies\u2013Muhaimin unggul di tiga pemilih partai yaitu Nasdem (64%), PKB (46%), dan PKS (77.1%).<\/p>\n<p>Ganjar\u2013Mahfud unggul di satu pemilih partai yaitu PDIP dengan dukungan di pemilih PDIP sebesar 60.4%. Di kalangan partai pendukungnya sendiri: PPP, perolehan Ganjar-Mahfud lebih kecil (8.6%), dibandingkan ke Prabowo-Gibran (64.8%).<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\uddda. \ud835\uddd7\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6, \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude03\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff, \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude00\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8\ud835\ude02<\/p>\n<p>Prabowo-Gibran unggul di semua teritori dengan keunggulan terbesar ada di Sulawesi Selatan. Mereka unggul di Sumatera dengan elektabilitas sebesar 55.8%, Jawa (51%), Bali-NTB-NTT (56.9%), Kalimantan (59.7%), Sulawesi (65.3%), dan Maluku-Papua (42.7%).<\/p>\n<p>Dari tiga provinsi terbesar (Jawa Barat, Jawa Timur dan Jawa Tengah), Prabowo-Gibran unggul di Jawa Barat dengan elektabilitas sebesar 55.1%, di Jawa Timur dengan elektabilitas 62.4%. Untuk Jawa tengah, Ganjar dikalahkan di kandang banteng dengan elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 48.6%, elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 39.9%.<\/p>\n<p>Dari sisi kesukuan, Prabowo-Gibran unggul di Jawa dengan 51.8%, Sunda (56.3%), Melayu (60.7%), Madura (67.7%), Bugis (60.6%), Batak (77.2%), dan suku lainnya (53.8%). Anies-Muhaimin unggul di suku Betawi (62.1%) dan Minang (73.9%).<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\udddb. \ud835\uddd5\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf5\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfd \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddffe\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb \ud835\udddd\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\udde0\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee \ud835\udde6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9?<\/p>\n<p>Terlepas dari hingar bingar protes dari Kampus atas Jokowi, tapi kepuasan publik atas Jokowi masih sangatlah tinggi: 80,8%. Di pemilih yang puas terhadap kinerja Jokowi, Prabowo-Gibran unggul dengan elektabilitas sebesar 60.4%. Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 19.4%. Elektabilitas Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 14.9%.<\/p>\n<p>Pada pemilih yang tidak puas terhadap kinerja Jokowi, Anies-Muhaimin unggul dengan elektabilitas sebesar 47.0%. Elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 28.9%. Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 19.4%<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfee\ud835\udddc. \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc-\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf4\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddef\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8 \ud835\ude06\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude06\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude06\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf8 \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude06\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9.<\/p>\n<p>Pada pemilih yang mempunyai media sosial, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 53.2%. Elektabilitas Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 24.2%. Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 17.0%.<\/p>\n<p>Pada pemilih yang tidak mempunyai akun media sosial elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 54%. Elektabilitas Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 23.2%. Elektabilitas Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 17.1%.<\/p>\n<p>Pada pemilih yang menggunakan medsos, di semua saluran Prabowo-Gibran unggul. sebagai contoh di pengguna WhatsApp dan Facebook misalnya.<\/p>\n<p>Pada pengguna WhatsApp, Prabowo-Gibran elektabilitasnya sebesar 56%. Anies-Muhaimin elektabilitasnya sebesar 22.6%. Ganjar-Mahfud elektabilitasnya sebesar 13.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Pada pengguna Facebook, Prabowo-Gibran elektabilitasnya sebesar 55.4%. Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 16.1%. Anies-Muhaimin sebesar 22.3%.<\/p>\n<p>Pada lengkap dan detail dari distribusi dukungan berbagai segmen pemilih, dapat dilihat di bahan paparan yang disertakan.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udc01\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udfd1 : \ud835\udc0b\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc29\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc30\ud835\udc28-\ud835\udc06\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc22 \ud835\udfd5 \ud835\udc00\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc1a : \ud835\udc0c\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc29\ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc30\ud835\udc28-\ud835\udc06\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc24?<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfef\ud835\uddd4. \ud835\udddf\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee, \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8<\/p>\n<p>Pada survei bulan September 2023, pemilih wong cilik (pendapatan di bawah Rp 2 juta\/bulan) yang memilih Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 39.5%. Survei di awal Februari 2024, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran di segmen wong cilik sebesar 54.7%.<\/p>\n<p>Lompatan kenaikan di wong cilik dari September 2023 ke Februari 2024 sebesar 15.2%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfef\ud835\uddd5. \ud835\udddf\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee, \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf7\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff<\/p>\n<p>Pada survei bulan September 2023, pemilih terpelajar (pendidikan D3 ke atas) yang memilih Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 30.8%. Survei di awal Februari 2024, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran di segmen terpelajar sebesar 37.8%.<\/p>\n<p>Lompatan kenaikan di segmen terpelajar dari September 2023 ke Februari 2024 sebesar 7%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfef\ud835\uddd6. \ud835\udddf\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee, \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\uddfa\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee<\/p>\n<p>Pada survei bulan September 2023, pemilih muda (pemilih dengan usia di bawah 30 tahun) yang memilih Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 49.5%. Survei di awal Februari 2024, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran di pemilih muda sebesar 65%.<\/p>\n<p>Lompatan kenaikan di pemilih muda dari September 2023 ke Februari 2024 sebesar 15.5%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfef\ud835\uddd7. \ud835\udddf\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01, \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\udddd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddee \ud835\udde7\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf5<\/p>\n<p>Pada survei bulan September 2023, pemilih di Jawa Tengah yang memilih Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 11.4%. Survei di awal Februari 2024, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran di pemilih Jawa Tengah sebesar 48.6%.<\/p>\n<p>Lompatan kenaikan di pemilih Jawa Tengah dari September 2023 ke Februari 2024 sebesar 37.2%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfef\ud835\uddd8. \ud835\udddf\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee, \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00<\/p>\n<p>Pada survei bulan September 2023, pemilih agama minoritas yang memilih Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 25%. Survei di awal Februari 2024, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran di pemilih agama minoritas sebesar 55.3%.<\/p>\n<p>Lompatan kenaikan di agama minoritas dari September 2023 ke Februari 2024 sebesar 30.3%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfef\ud835\uddd9. \ud835\udddf\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa, \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\ude06\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00 \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf7\ud835\uddee \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb \ud835\udddd\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddf6<\/p>\n<p>Pada survei bulan September 2023, pemilih yang puas kinerja Presiden Jokowi, memilih Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 40.5%. Survei di awal Februari 2024, elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran di pemilih yang puas kinerja Presiden Jokowi sebesar 60.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Lompatan kenaikan di pemilih yang puas kinerja Presiden Jokowi dari September 2023 ke Februari 2024 sebesar 20.1%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udfef\ud835\uddda. \ud835\udddf\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf7\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf5, \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddef\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfa<\/p>\n<p>Pada survei bulan September 2023, pengenalan (popularitas) Gibran Rakabuming Raka sebesar 69.4%. Saat ini di awal Februari 2024, pengenalan Gibran mencapai 95.3%.<\/p>\n<p>Lompatan kenaikan popularitas Gibran dari September 2023 ke Februari 2024 sebesar 25.9%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udc01\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udfd2 : \ud835\udc13\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc07\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc32\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20 \ud835\udc01\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc0c\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc24\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc12\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2e \ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udde3\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee : \ud835\udde7\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude06\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddda\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddfd\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc-\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf8 \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9<\/p>\n<p>Golput dimaknai sebagai pemilih yang tidak menggunakan hak pilihnya. Pada tahun 2004, tingkat golput sebesar 24.76%. Tahun 2009 golput naik menjadi 28.2%. Tahun 2014 golput naik kembali menjadi 30.4%. Tahun 2019 golput mengalami penurunan menjadi sebesar 18.03%.<\/p>\n<p>Survei mengandaikan tingkat partisipasi 100% atau golput 0%, karena pemilih didatangi. Kenyataannya nanti pemilih yang harus datang ke TPS sehingga tingkat partisipasi 100% atau golput 0% sesuatu hal yang sulit tercapai.<\/p>\n<p>Jika terjadi tingginya golput di pemilih Prabowo-Gibran secara tidak proporsional, maka dukungan yang diraih akan turun, sehingga tidak mencapai 50% lebih.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\uddde\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee : \ud835\uddd5\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude06\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf3\ud835\ude01 \ud835\ude00\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc-\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\ude4e\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude5b\ud835\ude69 \ud835\ude68\ud835\ude6a\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude65\ud835\ude64\ud835\ude67\ud835\ude69\ud835\ude5a\ud835\ude67 (pemilih yang masih bisa berubah pilihannya) Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 5.6%. Jika pemilih ini total mengalihkan dukungannya maka dukungan yang diraih Prabowo-Gibran akan kurang dari 50% plus.<\/p>\n<p>Saat ini elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran sebesar 53.5%. sehingga jika dikurangi \ud835\ude34\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude27\ud835\ude35 \ud835\ude34\ud835\ude36\ud835\ude31\ud835\ude31\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude35\ud835\ude26\ud835\ude33 5.6% tersisa sebesar 47.9%.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\uddde\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee : \ud835\udddd\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf8\ud835\uddee \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude00\ud835\uddee \ud835\ude04\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf8\ud835\ude01\ud835\ude02 \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf7\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf6 \ud835\uddef\ud835\uddf9\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddf3\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\udde3\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04\ud835\uddfc-\ud835\uddda\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb<\/p>\n<p>Jika terjadi blunder fatal, maka dukungan akan menurun. Tren positif yang selama ini diraih bisa berbalik arah menjadi negatif.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K<\/strong>\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc29\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27:<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\udde3\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee, Semakin terbuka pemilu Presiden 2024 berakhir Satu Putaran Saja untuk Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, karena sudah menembus dukungan 53%<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\uddde\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf1\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddee, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka unggul hampir di semua segmen masyarakat, kecuali di etnis Minang dan Betawi.<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\uddde\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf4\ud835\uddee, Dukungan Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka meningkat di 7 area seperti: pemilih muda, wong cilik, pemilih minoritas, Jawa Tengah, Jawa Timur dan Jawa Barat, hingga meningkatnya pengenalan\/kesukaan Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\uddde\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddfd\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01, tiga hal bisa membatalkan Satu Putaran: golput tidak proporsional di pemilih Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, beralihnya pemilih \ud835\ude34\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude27\ud835\ude35 \ud835\ude34\ud835\ude36\ud835\ude31\ud835\ude31\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude35\ud835\ude26\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude34, dan blunder yang fatal Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka di sisa waktu<\/p>\n<p>\ud835\uddde\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee, karena masih ada pemilih yang belum menentukan pilihan, pemilih yang belum militan dan \ud835\ude2e\ud835\ude22\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude28\ud835\ude2a\ud835\ude2f \ud835\ude30\ud835\ude27 \ud835\ude26\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude33\ud835\ude30\ud835\ude33 karena sampel, LSI Denny JA membuat prediksi dalam bentuk interval<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Prabowo- Gibran: 47.9% &#8211; 58.3%<\/li>\n<li>Anies- Muhaimin: 18.9% &#8211; 26.5%<\/li>\n<li>Ganjar- Mahfud: 16.8% &#8211; 24.0%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\ud835\uddde\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfa, dengan prediksi interval itu maka 30% kemungkinan Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka menang tapi ada putaran kedua, dan 70% kemungkinan Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka menang satu putaran saja. *<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ditulis oleh: Denny JA Ph.D (Pendiri Lingkaran Survei Indonesia\/LSI) Semakin terbuka Pemilu Presiden 2024 berakhir satu putaran saja untuk Prabowo-Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, karena pasangan ini sudah menembus dukungan 53.5%. Pertanyaannya, di sisa waktu tujuh hari lagi menuju pemilihan, akan adakah peristiwa besar yang akan mengurangi laju elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran, dan membatalkan menang satu putaran saja? Jika [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84662,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[26279,26166,26181,26209,26169,22511,22727,26066],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/inline\/2024\/02\/gambar-Ilustrasi-Denny-JA-2.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8t7XB-m1v","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84661"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84661"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84661\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84663,"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84661\/revisions\/84663"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fornews.co\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}